Djelloul Chetouane in Africa News: Mali on the edge of the abyss, from fuel crisis to war on identity

Mali on the edge of the abyss: from fuel crisis to a war on identity

By Djelloul Chetouane, President of the Hisn Al-Mateen Bloc

The situation in Mali is no longer a passing crisis or a classic conflict between a state and armed groups. What we are witnessing is the methodical disintegration of the state, the collapse of the social contract, and the transformation of military power in Bamako into a war machine turned against its own people under the pretext of “counter-terrorism”. Repeated warnings urging foreign nationals to leave Mali are an implicit admission of the clinical death of the Malian state.

Key points (condensed):

• The spark of collapse: since September 2025, a blockade imposed by the JNIM group has paralysed Mali's main cities, exposing the military council's impotence and total loss of control over the state, and the failure of the army, backed by Russian contingents, to secure humanitarian and logistics convoys.
• A war on civilians: bombardments targeting civilians in Gao, Kidal and Timbuktu amount to a systematic campaign of terror. According to ACLED data, 65% of the victims recorded in July 2025 were civilians, and 95% of air strikes since 2023 hit populated areas unconnected to armed groups. The tragedy of 24 October 2025 in Timbuktu, where an entire family was killed by a drone strike, illustrates the regime's blind brutality.
• Azawad's gold, the real driver of the conflict: at the Intahaka gold mine, the army expelled local miners to hand the site to the company SOREM Mali, before JNIM took control of the deposit; according to Azawadi actors, this policy serves to finance Russian mercenaries.
• A renewed resistance: the Azawad Liberation Movement (MLA) is emerging as a disciplined political and military force, and its discourse, carried by figures such as Abdelkrim Ag Matava, marks a shift from armed uprising to a legitimate struggle for dignity and self-determination. The desertion of soldier Ag Houkatani illustrates the moral fracture within the Malian army.
• Recognising the new reality: the international community must stop supporting a discredited regime and recognise the legitimacy of the Azawadi cause.

The Hisn Al-Mateen Bloc's vision: the Algiers Agreement, the only horizon for peace. A return to the Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation resulting from the Algiers process (2015) is the only way out for Mali. It recognises the political and identity dimensions of the conflict and offers a clear road map: genuine decentralisation of power, integration of northern populations into state institutions, fair sharing of resources, and respect for Azawad's cultural and social specificities. The junta's rejection of the agreement is the original sin behind the current disaster, and any credible peace process must go through Algiers.

Mali now faces two paths: a return to the wisdom of the Algiers Agreement, or a descent into a spiral of blood and chaos. History will judge those who chose war over reason.

Algiers, 27 October 2025
Djelloul Chetouane, President of the Hisn Al-Mateen Bloc